NCD Risk Module
The NCD (Non-Communicable Disease) risk module maps environmental and lifestyle risk factors for conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease and obesity across Southern Africa.
Open the NCD dashboard: https://main.d1jko0jkg4m7f.amplifyapp.com/ → NCD Risk Prediction
Scope
| Property | Detail |
|---|---|
| Geography | South Africa · Botswana · Zimbabwe · Lesotho |
| Granularity | Country → Province → Municipality |
| Boundary data | GADM ADM1 (provinces) + ADM3 (municipalities) |
Risk factors tracked
| Factor | EO / Data source | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Air quality | Sentinel-5P TROPOMI | NO₂, PM₂.₅ proxy, AQI |
| Urban heat stress | Landsat LST | LST deviation from baseline |
| Vegetation / green space | Sentinel-2 NDVI | Green space access proxy |
| Built-up density | ESA WorldCover Class 50 | Urban sprawl indicator |
| Access to healthcare | Facility point data | Distance-to-clinic index |
| Lifestyle proxy | WorldPop + land cover | Urban / sedentary classification |
| Obesity prevalence | Survey-derived | % prevalence by province |
Country-level NCD risk scores (prototype)
The prototype assigns baseline country-level NCD risk scores used for choropleth mapping:
| Country | Risk score | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Zimbabwe | 63% | 🟠 Moderate-High |
| South Africa | 58% | 🟡 Moderate |
| Lesotho | 52% | 🟡 Moderate |
| Botswana | 45% | 🟢 Moderate-Low |
const countryNcdRisk = {
"South Africa": 58,
"Botswana": 45,
"Zimbabwe": 63,
"Lesotho": 52
};
These values will be replaced by EO-derived, ward-level computed scores in Milestone 2.
Dashboard features
Country choropleth
On load, all four countries are rendered as coloured polygons using GADM Africa GeoJSON. Colour scale:
| Risk | Fill colour |
|---|---|
| ≥ 70% | #d73027 (red) |
| 55–69% | #fc8d59 (orange) |
| 40–54% | #fee08b (yellow) |
| < 40% | #91cf60 (green) |
Province drill-down (South Africa)
Clicking South Africa (or selecting it in the dropdown) loads provincial boundaries from South_Africa_ADM1.geojson. Each province is selectable and zooms the map.
Municipality layer
Selecting a province loads municipality centroids from South_Africa_ADM3.geojson as circle markers, populating the municipality dropdown.
Environmental & lifestyle panel
Displays for the selected region:
- Lifestyle type (urban / sedentary classification)
- Population density (persons/km²)
- Access to healthcare (% index)
- Air Quality Index
- Obesity prevalence
Data sources
| Dataset | Description | Provider |
|---|---|---|
africa-countries.geo.json | Country polygons | GADM |
South_Africa_ADM1.geojson | SA provincial boundaries | GADM |
South_Africa_ADM3.geojson | SA municipality centroids | GADM |
| Sentinel-5P TROPOMI | Air quality (NO₂, CO) | ESA / GEE |
| WorldPop | Population density | WorldPop |
| ESA WorldCover | Land cover classification | ESA / GEE |
Roadmap
| Phase | Planned enhancement |
|---|---|
| Milestone 2 | Replace static NCD scores with GEE-computed, ward-level values |
| Milestone 2 | Add Sentinel-5P TROPOMI AQI layer to map |
| Milestone 2 | Extend to Mozambique and Namibia |
| Milestone 3 | Validate against SADHS health survey data |
| Milestone 3 | Add time slider for NCD trend analysis (matching malaria module) |